Friday, October 31, 2014

Can WikiLeaks tame Wall Street

The Business Spectator has an article by Andrew Leonard looking at some of the implications of the upcoming Wikileaks dump of data from a large American bank - Can WikiLeaks tame Wall Street?.
Forbes magazine is making a very big deal of a declaration by WikiLeaks maestro Julian Assange that sometime early next year, "a major American bank will suddenly find itself turned inside out."

"You could call it the ecosystem of corruption," he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in more detail. "But its also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and supports unethical practices: the oversight thats not done, the priorities of executives, how they think theyre fulfilling their own self-interest."

Strangely, despite devoting thousands of words to a blossoming war between the technologists seeking to provide the private sector with leak-proof security systems and the information-wants-to-be-free revolutionaries personified by Assange, reporter Andy Greenbergs original story had two big holes. First, he missed Assanges assertion last year, published by ComputerWorld, that he was sitting on five gigabytes of data liberated from Bank of America, which puts that institution at the top of the list of likely exposure suspects. But more important, Greenberg doesnt devote much attention to what a world in which big corporations cannot keep the lid on their internal communications and deliberations sealed would look like.

There seems little doubt that that world is coming. Whatever you think of the ethics or legality of such involuntary disclosure, or regard Assange as a noble whistle-blower or rank terrorist, theres no getting around how easy it is to dump vast amounts of information into the public domain in the era of portable hard drives and ubiquitous Net access. From the dawn of the computer age, information has become ever harder to control, and theres no sign of that changing any time soon. Quite the contrary, as proven by the current flurry of WikiLeaks diplomatic cables released.

But what will it mean, practically speaking? Ideally, greater transparency is supposed to improve market efficiency. So if, say, a data dump on a big bank revealed the corruption at the heart of that institutions operations, it would be punished by the market, perhaps to the point of going out of business. In the interview with Forbes, Assange goes so far as to assert that "one or two" big banks may collapse as a result of WikiLeaks revelations.

Could Julian Assange achieve what a global financial meltdown failed to accomplish? Perhaps, if the information is fresh enough and reveals financial problems previously unknown. Or maybe there will be juicy material that gets plugged immediately into the proliferating investor lawsuits raking over dubious securities trade of the last decade.

But thats all after the fact. The more interesting question is to wonder whether the threat or certainty of eventual exposure has any kind of prophylactic effect on behaviour. For example, would the financial crisis have played out any differently if we could have read every e-mail or text written by Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers or Merrill Lynch mortgage bond traders during the hot and heavy days of the housing boom?
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What does nuclear fusion mean for our energy future


Nuclear fusion is very common process that occurs naturally and regularly in stars, including our own Sun. The scientists have already managed to achieve artificial nuclear fusion though they still need to find the methods that would enable them to maintain the full control over the entire process of nuclear fusion. 

Nuclear fusion reaction needs to be controlled all the time because if we let nuclear fusion reaction occurring as an uncontrolled chain reaction, it can even result in a huge thermonuclear blast (for instance nuclear fusion for military purposes began with the research in the early 1940s as part of the Manhattan Project-making of the atomic bomb). 

What this means is that only controlled nuclear fusion can be considered as the safe source of energy. The scientific research into controlled fusion, mostly with the purpose to produce fusion power for the production of electricity, has been conducted for more than 50 years. Despite the evident progress and some notable experiments scientists still arent able to totally control this process.

The energy that originates from nuclear fusion has kept our Sun burning and shining for billions of years. The process of nuclear fusion that happens naturally in the stars like our Sun is the result of interaction between the nuclei of lighter elements (such as hydrogen) in which they get fused together at extremely high temperatures and pressures to form heavier elements (such as helium).

Our Sun wouldnt shine without the nuclear fusion

Nuclear fusion is almost limitless source of energy so its no wonder that scientists from all over the globe study it, driven primarily by the idea that nuclear fusion can lead to carbon-free energy future. In order to create nuclear fusion process in the laboratory scientists require extremely high temperatures (hydrogen isotopes for instance are usually heated to temperatures of over 10 million degrees Celsius.) The higher the temperature, the faster the atoms or nuclei move. The fuel used for a fusion reactor is usually deuterium. Deuterium can be obtained by extraction from ordinary water.

The main purpose of the nuclear fusion that occurs in the laboratory is the creation of an ionized gas called plasma. The resulting plasma (very hot, ionized gas that can conduct electricity is basically a stuff all stars were made of) needs to become sufficiently hot and dense in order to produce large quantities of high-energy helium ions (alpha particles).

Many scientists are still convinced that nuclear fusion will become the key energy source in future. Nuclear fusion releases an enormous amount of energy, in average close to one million times that of a chemical reaction. It has been said that the advanced research and development in fusion energy could also lead to major progress in high speed computing, high power lasers, electronic diagnostic equipment, etc.

Nuclear fusion is in constant need of large amount of energy because nuclei strongly resist being put too close together, even for the lightest elements such as hydrogen. The good side is that nuclear fusion usually releases lot more energy than it takes to join nuclei together.

The theory of cold fusion has also been very popular lately, and it refers to fusion at low enough temperatures to make profits, meaning that the output energy would be far greater than input energy.
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Thursday, October 30, 2014

Pygmalion

Inventor Demonstrates Humanoid Robot's Latest AI Abilities (8/25/09)
In August 2007, Le Trung invented Aiko, a Yumecom, or "Dream Computer Robot." Although it took only a month and a half to build Aikos exterior, the artificial intelligence software has been a work in progress ever since. Recently, Le Trung has demonstrated his most recent improvements to the software, called BRAINS (Bio Robot Artificial Intelligence Neural System).


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ARPA E backs compressed air energy storage project

The New York Times has an article on ARPA-E investing in General Compressions CAES technology for an energy storage pilot project with Duke Energy - ARPA-E Is Poised to Put Products on the Grid.
ARPA-E, the government’s incubator for high-risk energy inventions, has its first graduate in the electricity area — a new energy storage technology — and on Thursday it announced a preliminary agreement to get it tested.

The agency, more formally the Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy, modeled after the Defense Department’s longstanding program, said it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Duke, the big utility company, and the Electric Power Research Institute, the nonprofit utility consortium, to try out the inventions in the real world.

The agreement will “provide the connective tissue for ARPA-E,’’ said Arun Majumdar, the agency’s director, and “provide the test bed to see how to create value in the actual business.’’

The first candidate will probably be General Compression, a company to which ARPA-E directed $750,000; that advanced the technology enough for the firm to raise $12 million privately, Mr. Majumdar said. The company developed a way to pump air into an underground cavern, using electricity generated at inconvenient hours. When the energy is needed, the air flows back out again through a generator.

An older technology accomplishes this by adding natural gas to the exiting air and burning it to spin a turbine; General Compression uses no fuel at all. Its “round-trip efficiency,” meaning the amount of energy delivered versus the amount it takes in, is 70 to 75 percent, the company says.

Energy storage is considered a crucial complement to wind power and possibly solar power as well, smoothing out production and ensuring that the energy is available when it is most valuable, but today’s systems are expensive and thus are not in wide use.

Mr. Mujamdar said that ARPA-E hoped the air compression technology can be scaled big enough to store a gigawatt-hour, equal to the entire output of a large nuclear plant for an hour. Price is a crucial consideration, and ARPA-E has determined that a utility could probably afford to pay $100 per kilowatt-hour of storage.
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Indonesias oil output declines

UPI has a report on Indonesias declining oil production - Indonesias oil output declines.

Indonesias BPMigas oil and gas regulator says that national fields are in decline.



Apparently confirming that Indonesias oil production has hit a decline as predicted by "peak oil" proponents, BPMigas spokesman Gde Pradnyana said Indonesia will have to reduce its dependency on oil.



He said the country will take steps to shift to natural gas from oil.



"Were currently just trying to maintain the current oil production so that it will not drop sharply," Gde told The Jakarta Post.



"The discovery of oil fields in the next five to seven years will be difficult, especially those that can produce as much as the Cepu Block. The future projects will be mostly gas operations."



Gde, however, said he remains upbeat however about the countrys long-term prospects.



He told the Post that Indonesia has 10 oil and gas projects with a total investment of $4.7 billion, expected to come on-stream through 2014.



"This reflects that the future of Indonesias oil and gas industry will be dominated by gas," Gde said.



The projects are expected to produce 1.75 million cubic feet of gas per day, 20,000 barrels of oil per day and 26,000 barrels per day of oil condensate, Gde said.



Indonesia, formerly a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has been struggling with both declining oil output from aging oilfields, some of which date to the late 19th century, and rising demand for natural gas, which is limiting its gas export potential.
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Global Exergy Resource Chart

Stanfords "Global Climate and Energy project" has a great chart showing the energy sources available to us and how much we are currently using - Global Exergy Resource Chart.
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Floating an LNG revolution in Western Australia

The AFR has an article on Woodsides decision to opt for a floating LNG plant for the Browse Basin off north-west WA - Floating an LNG revolution in Western Australia.
If West Australian Premier Colin Barnett is looking for someone to blame for crushing his dreams to develop a massive gas processing hub near Broome he needs to go to The Hague. The seeds were sown in 1996, when a ­senior engineer at Shell’s headquarters ­jotted down an idea in an internal staff ­suggestion box. Why not liquify gas offshore rather than develop pipelines and convert gas into liquified natural gas onshore?

Nearly 20 years and 1.6 million man-hours later Shell is recruiting the first wave of workers for a massive vessel about 200 kilometres off the Kimberley coast, processing gas from its Prelude gas field. It will be the first vessel in the world that will be able to take gas from the reservoir below, liquify it and transfer the gas to cargo ships that will moor alongside the processing facility in the middle of the ocean.

It wasn’t that long ago that the technology, known as floating LNG, was viewed as an expensive option only to be used to unlock small or stranded gas fields like ­Prelude. This week the game changed. Woodside, Australia’s biggest oil and gas company, has thrown its support behind the technology, declaring it wants to be a world-leading floating LNG operator as it decided to unleash not just one, but three floating LNG ships to develop its Browse gas resources.

The Business Spectator has an interview with Woodside CEO Peter Coleman about Brows, Israels Leviathan field and the possibility of shale gas exports from the US (something the Japanese seem keen to encourage). The BSs Robert Gottliebsen continuing his incessant anti-union / government diatribe (Coleman deftly ignored him thankfully) - KGB Interview: Woodsides Peter Coleman.

SB: Peter, looking at your presentation this week, you don’t seem particularly concerned about the potential impact of US shale-fed LNG hitting your markets. Could it have a material impact on prices or more particularly could it have an impact on the way LNG is priced?

PC: Well, there are probably two impacts of that. Firstly, the impact of US shale gas is quite clearly improving productivity in the US and making the US actually a more attractive place to invest, particularly for some industries around chemicals and plastics. And so, those energy intensive industries are actually moving back into the US and will soak up some of that excess supply. The supply that may get into LNG , and remember there’s not very much that has actually gone to FID yet …

AK: Sorry Peter, we’re getting some static.

PC: Yeah, so I was saying, the shale gas industry and the surge in gas available and into the US has really made the US attractive as an investment destination for those industries that are very energy intensive or turn gas into something else, being the chemicals and the plastic industry. The gas that’s left over and, you know, the gas that will be exported, you know, there are a couple of things there to consider. Firstly, there are a lot of projects at the moment on the drawing board. Not many have gone to a final investment decision. When you look at the total cost structure, the landed priced into Asia will be competitive but it won’t be low cost by any means. So, the headline price of $4 gas hitting Asia is just simply untrue. Now, the price is going to be in the low to mid-teens and it doesn’t really take very much of a rise in gas prices in the US to in fact make it marginal to uneconomic. So, I think that we a balance will occur, and an equilibrium point will occur, within industry within the next five to 10 years. What does that mean? There’s going to be an evolution in the market. The market is already evolving to become a more fungible commodity. I see trading hubs will be established. True training hubs will be established. Will that be in Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong? I can’t say, but Woodside is preparing ourselves for the advent of trading hubs. So, all of those sorts of things will come into play. The consumer is starting to see. You’re starting to see a proliferation now of regasification terminals being put into Asia. As many terminals that as currently exist are now being built in Asia, so there are 40 currently underway. So, clearly the buyers can see that the market is changing. It’s becoming more commoditised. Henry Hub gas just simply puts another gas stream into that. I wouldn’t see Henry Hub any differently from gas that’s going to come out of East Africa or other parts of the world. It’s just another gas stream that’s going to come in.

Gottliebsen has been banging this drum forever it seems, though the BS getting sold to Rupert Murdoch last year hasnt helped matters. Crikeys Guy Rundle has some thoughts about Ruperts malign influence on the Australian election (I liked the Gus Fring comparison) - In Murdoch-land, sans-public sphere, it all sounds the same.
Getting out and about in Brisbane of a morning, you’re greeted with something you’ve forgotten: this is a one-owner town, newspaper wise. Looking at a news rack and seeing The Australian and The Courier-Mail side-by-side — and nothing else — it’s a sort of parody of pluralism. Yeah, I know it’s newspapers, and having a monopoly on them is a little like cornering the spats market, no one under 30, blah blah, etc, but it’s still the way a city talks to itself, the public face of its dialogue. And yes, there’s other TV networks — supposing that they differ in any significant fashion — and the ABC, etc, but still.

There’s a pseudo-pluralism at play that still rankles — would you like the broadsheet which does Kevin Rudd slowly, or the tabloid that sinks the slipper? The Courier-Mail runs with a “Does this man ever shut up?” cover while The Daily Telegraph has a “Mr Rude”, Mr Man parody, using allegations by a make-up artist from a debate run by Sky News — a broadcaster Rupert Murdoch owns a stake in — that Rudd was a bit of a grump. Such “front pages” are nothing of the sort. They’re propaganda posters which happen to be attached to the front of a newspaper, their purpose political as much as commercial. Knowing that people don’t buy newspapers, but still see them around, they go for the microsecond hit, the fast meme. Which may be enough, when aggregated for a Coalition win, without anything else whatsoever.

Really, to talk about the election without mentioning this — the framework of information within which people will make their decision — is really to aid and abet the process. The whole country has become a leagues club owned by a monolithic media corporation; pokies in the main room, a debate going on in the entertainment lounge, the ownership and core business a series of windfalls and rents — mining, sports rights — with the ultimate ownership arrangements a matter of mystery. But to mention this every time is the pathway to madness. So the debate cannot help but be skewed, every time we tap out a line about costings or paid parental leave or whatever. That’s really the genius of Murdoch taking to Twitter — he now hides in plain sight. When he was a mysterious presence behind the scenes, speculation on his motives and power were endless. Now he simply tells us in his weird telegrammatic/spoken-word style that he wants Rudd turfed — and pretty much nothing more can be said about it.

Thus, as soon as the campaign started, the Tele was off and running with its front-page propaganda campaign (even though some of the news within is played — or delivered — straight). Two weeks later, in its major market of western Sydney — perhaps the latest place with a large, old-style working class and literate tabloid readers, out of the social media/The Project/etc carnivale loop — Labor is suddenly tanking, its numbers running well below the national average. What a surprise! What could possibly have created this sudden shift, this bifurcation in the numbers, we go. Is it the boats? Is it the negativity? Is it being mean to TV crew? We know what it is, but we can’t talk about it because that would be the politics of how we do politics, of who controls the information on which we make our decisions. Rudd quite sensibly put his marker down on Murdochracy quite early — and then left it alone, also quite sensible. Because you either run on that, and nothing else, suggest an all-encompassing undemocratic process, and risk the charge that you are sledging the umpire, or you leave it alone — and try and deal with it by a series of guerrilla tactics.

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Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Children Of Thatcher

Last weeks London riots were an intersting window into the modern day UK, with the initial riot in Tottenham looking much like past summer riots in Tottenham, Brixton, Toxteth and the like, but the following 3 nights appeared to be something new - random opportunistic looting rather than a venting of political outrage.



Crikeys Guy Rundle has an look at the outburst - People feel like they’ve got a stake through their heart.

We are “all children of Thatcher’”



 — British Foreign Secretary William Hague in an off-guard moment



Yesterday I noted that the most important thing to observe in writing about the “British Riots” was that there was no such thing — there is no single event going on in the UK, with a single meaning. What started as a protest against the police killing of a black man in Tottenham — with an incompetent police frame-up thrown in — became the opportunity for three or four intersecting waves of action to occur.



They were:



1. Wider protests and property damage against racist policing (especially “stop-and-search” powers) in non-white areas of London,



2. Atomist-anarchist property damage (and attacks on media personnel) as part of a strategy of basic disruption



3. Property damage and looting by a “transitional” group — politically-defined anarchists and koukouloforoi (“hooded ones” in the Greek terminology) shading into opportunistic riotous youths



4. Violent, sometimes organised, criminality — systematic looting for on-sale, mugging etc.



5. Racist attacks in multiple directions — between blacks and British-Asians, and by white “vigilante” groups of blacks.



Clearly there are overlaps at the edges of each, and multiple purpose — in some cases to steal a pair of trainers or a plasma TV is an act with a political dimension, but the fact that these are separated processes can be seen by looking at earlier riots/insurrections — such as the Brixton ones of the early 1980s, or the Broadwater Farm (near Tottenham) battles of 1985, where looting and random criminality was marginal or absent.



Thus, not only is there a multiplicity of layers to what is occurring, but some of these work against each other — the organised criminals are preying on the weak while they also empty out chain stores, the looters blunt anti-racist protest by turning it into a free-for-all, and the white English Defence Leagues (and some black gangs, or groupuscules), are attempting to turn it into a racial conflict, when its roots are clearly in the relations between police and public.



When people are banding together to protect their streets against such fluid anomic destruction, you would be foolish in the extreme to construct the event as nothing other than meaningful resistance and get on its side, as some on the Left seem to be doing. But the far greater foolishness is with the Right, who have put the multiple events into one lump, and trotted out their tired old recitative of civilisational decline.



For the Right, the events are the fault of everything from soft policing, to the collapse of traditional moral authority, parents not being allowed to smack their children, the failure to teach proper history in schools, the writings of Michel Foucault, the personal conduct of Amy Winehouse, and so on and so on. Anything, apparently, but the actual events that kicked the whole thing off in the first place — a police killing of a black man who never fired a shot, in a country where poor communities are feeling the effect of deep cuts to social services and community institutions.



There is something not only wearying but wearied about the Right’s recitative — as if they barely believe it themselves, or are divided into whom to turn their hate on more — the people doing the mayhem, or the “political class” alleged to have betrayed the country through spineless failure to assert proper authority etc etc. To blame the latter — which they would dearly love to do — would be, in part, to give a social explanation for the events, and they hate that. But to sheet home individual blame, is to let the “surrender” culture off the hook, and they hate that more.



Some — such as Theodore Dalrymple and Andrew Bolt  — come to a darker solution, and start muttering about an “underclass”, let off the leash by the permissive class, and threatening the class above — goodly workers and lower-middle class people — to be protected by a bit of social cleansing perhaps. The prize probably goes to Melanie Phillips who blames well, everything, absolutely everything, in a hilarious self-parodic recitative that stands as the right’s melt-down.



The short answer to the Right’s self-serving construction of these events would be to say that they are easily falsified by looking at where and when they don’t and didn’t happen. The first and obvious candidate is Scotland — these aren’t British riots, they’re English riots. Why? Because Scotland and Northern Ireland are separately governed for the purposes of domestic spending, and in both cases, the Tories’ cuts have been resisted. People still have a stake in society and riots when they occur have an older political form i.e. sectarianism.



Furthermore when you look to the places where “PC” parenting, policing blah blah has occurred — i.e. Scandinavia, Netherlands etc — you find not merely an absence of riots, but also an absence of the sort of anomie that fuels Britain. Why? Because they’re less unequal places. People still feel they’ve got a stake in their own lives.



In England, people feel like they’ve got a stake through their heart. They didn’t for a while under Labour, as Gordon Brown began to wheel out some sort of social investment state — now that’s been wound up, there is simply a renewed sense of radical isolation.



The form the riots are taking may well be dictated by the nature of postmodern society — the content is still dictated by politics. The Right’s half-arsed theorising on this wont disguise the truth — these are Thatcher’s children, and this is Thatcher’s England, still and again, and in its third decade.


I occasionally have a look at Salon and one column which is always featured prominently is Carey Tennis counselling column - which featured an outburst of its own this week, when looking at one correspondents job stress - Am I cut out for my dream job ?.

You are not surrounded by people whose primary thought when they wake up in the morning is how can they make sure you are happy and comfortable. Their thought is how can they get the most out of you so they have to do less themselves. Its not that theyre evil. Were all under the same strain. Were organized around the idea of always getting more. So your responsibilities will expand as long as you keep saying yes, and so you need a fundamental shift in your thinking that admits the existence of an adversarial relationship at work. You are working in a supposedly enlightened place, but you have no union. Without a union and workplace rules, you are at the mercy of whatever your boss wants. It is doubly hard to combat this when you are working for a cause you believe in.



But heres the other thing. Im going to sound angry and crazy when I say it, but whatever. OK, Ill just say it: We have a system that keeps workers in fear.



Its not you. Its the system weve allowed to come into being, and I dare say its come into being because the people it benefits are powerful enough and clever enough to keep it going, and the people it hurts are well-meaning but frightened and lack the foresight and the practical organizational strength to stop it.



We do not live in a good society. Thats another thing.



This is not a society dedicated to the care of others and the pursuit of wisdom. Wouldnt that be an amazing society? But thats not the one we have.



You live in a world that tricks you into believing that if you do what it says you will be happy. You wont. You wont be happier if you get the top spot. You wont be happier if you answer every call.



You say you work for a cause you believe in. You might be happier if you work more directly for your cause. Im not sure what cause that is, but if its, say, to create safer conditions for fishermen, you might be happier if you were actually fishing. Or if its to keep the environment pristine, you might be happier if you were actually in that environment keeping it pristine. Or if it is an organization dedicated to helping people, you might be happier if you were actually helping those people yourself. Thats one thing that happens with organizations, is that they alienate us from the ennobling activities they are formed to promote.



So theres that.



And this other thing is about being a person in an adversary relationship to the large economic and social forces that affect you. I grew up in a time when this was clearer. But it is still clear today.



Nothing has changed structurally; we are still a hateful, war-waging culture that denigrates women, celebrates killing, despoils the planet, plunders the resources of less powerful people, keeps a permanent underclass in virtual economic slavery and wages imperialist wars abroad. Were still the same country we were when I was growing up in the 1960s.



We just have better games.



Thats it in a nutshell. The "military-industrial complex" Dwight Eisenhower warned us about had a public-relations disaster in the 1960s, when it failed to adequately sell its project to Americas youth. Since then, it has learned.



The other day I was walking along wondering about the differences between people in their 20s and 30s today and during the 1960s and 1970s, marveling at the happy, well-adjusted faces I meet in the cafes and clothing stores, and wondering why my anguish and panic at our global state does not dent their cheerfulness, and also thinking about my largely unsupervised youth, unhygienic and renegade, and it occurred to me to see that todays parenting regime seems to have coalesced around the project of keeping youth constantly socialized and trained and busy so that they cannot sit around and wonder whats wrong. Because wondering whats wrong leads to troubling conclusions.



We have responded to the problem of existential anxiety not by confronting it with existential philosophy but by creating an ever-larger and more sophisticated web of 24-hour distraction and socialization training, so that young people are prevented from attaining the socially analytical skills that might lead them to see how theyre being fooled. If they saw how they are being fooled they might disrupt the functioning of this system. They might go on strike. They might bring the whole thing crashing down.



Keith Olbermann the other day suggested we take to the streets. What happened? Nothing.



We dont know how to take to the streets. Besides, it looks just awful on television.



So you can go ahead and do your job, but just be aware that you are being conned. You are living in a dishonest and rapacious culture, and you are doing the best you can to make it work for you. Even those of us working for causes we believe in are working in a basically anarchic, amoral system, without the benefit of unions or workplace protections and in an economic system that has no moral foundation.



Thats what we do. Thats who we are. And that weird anxiety you feel from time to time, thats not a problem. Thats just the truth seeping in.



Youre OK. Its the world thats messed up.
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Philosophia Naturalis 1

Welcome to the première edition of a new science blog carnival. Since the idea and objectives of the carnival have been explained here, I wont repeat those comments now. Lets get right down to business.

Its been 50 years since "artificial intelligence" emerged as a recognized subject of enquiry in computer science (see here). And for even longer than that, a few individuals -- such as Alan Turing -- have speculated about the possibility that computers could "think". AI has been controversial the whole time. Turing proposed a test, the Turing Test, which he offered as a criterion for computers having the ability to think. There has been plenty of skepticism that a computer could actually pass the test anytime soon. And it has also been argued that even if a computer could pass it, that would not mean the computer could really think. Scott Aaronson of Shtetl-Optimized takes on one form of this argument in Alan Turing, moralist.

Reaching back somewhat further in time, Scott also channels Aesop with this fable of The physicists and the wagon. Not to be outdone, Dave Bacon, the Quantum Pontiff, fires back with a tale of The Computer Scientist and the Abominable Approximation. The dueling fabulists are really talking about quantum computers and the differing approaches of physicists and computer scientists.

Writing in eSkeptic Phil Molé argues against the possibility of AI from a different point of view. In A.I. Gone Awry he describes three different approaches that have been tried for implementing AI, and he explains why he thinks none of them can work.

Another example of philosophical controversies that are actively roiling the waters of modern science is the pitched battle going on in high-energy physics over string theory. Despite the theorys mathematical elegance, after several decades of active study, physicists have not yet come up with any clear way to test the theory, and many are now skeptical that such a test will turn up any time soon, if ever. Peter Woit of Not Even Wrong is one of the better-known skeptics, and Lee Smolin is another. Both have recently published books on the subject. In The Trouble With Physics Woit reviews Smolins book.

The nice thing about science, the largest part of it anyway, is that most controversies are eventually resolved by an accumulation of evidence that strongly favors one hypothesis over all others. This seems to be happening now, finally, regarding the issue of "dark matter" in cosmology. Just a few weeks ago, new evidence was reported that strongly supports the existence of dark matter as an explanation for many puzzles about the seemingly anomalous behavior of visually observable matter. Sean Carroll at Cosmic Variance gives a comprehensive summary in Dark Matter Exists of what was found and what it means.

Having established that dark matter is real, the question remains: What is it? Another writer at Cosmic Variance, Mark Trodden, addresses this question in Identifying Dark Matter. This is a problem in particle physics rather than cosmology per se, though cosmological observations will almost certainly contribute to pinning down the answer. Basically, physicists are pretty sure that the standard model of particle physics isnt complete. There must be other particles and possibly other forces beyond those we know about. Not only are they needed to extend the standard model, but theyre natural candidates for the "stuff" of dark matter.

Theres a "standard model" of cosmology too -- its called the Big Bang. Though this model also has its skeptics, the present evidence in its favor is quite strong. And the recent findings about dark matter further bolster the theory. Actually, a big reason that skeptics of the Big Bang persist is that there are many misconceptions about the theory. Jon Voisey at The Angry Astronomer clears up some of them in The Big Bang – Common Misconceptions.

One aspect of the Big Bang about which there remains some uncertainty is the distance scale and correspondingly the amount of time that has elapsed since the initial singularity. Rob Knop at Galactic Interactions explains in Is the Universe a couple of billion years older than we thought? how astronomers try to measure distances. He then writes about recent research that raises questions about what we thought we knew regarding the cosmological distance scale -- and consequently how the figure of about 13.7 billion years for the length of time since the big bang could be 15% too low.

This length of time, otherwise known as "the age of the universe", is closely related to another quantity, the "Hubble constant". Its not really a constant, by the way, since it changes over the lifetime of the universe. Its more accurately called the Hubble parameter, and it expresses the rate at which distant galaxies are receding from us as a function of their distance, which is the key fact that Edwin Hubble discovered about 80 years ago. The value of this parameter at the present time is symbolized by H0, and its usually expressed in units of kilometers per second per megaparsec. If you unwind that, the units are proportional to the reciprocal of time, and so 1/H0 has units of time. To a first approximation, this is the "age of the universe". (A decade or so ago, some astronomers thought H0 was larger than todays best consensus value. So it was feared that the universe could not be as old as the oldest known stars. This was unsettling to many people.) The upshot of the new distance measurements is that H0 might be even smaller than the current consensus, making the universe even older. Mollishka at {mollishkas title goes here} points out here that measurements of H0 still arent that exact.

Although scientists havent thought for quite a long time that Hubbles "constant" is really constant, there are other important "constants of nature" whose actual constancy has only recently (less than a decade) been seriously studied experimentally. Accounts of such investigations show up from time to time in the popular media, such as here. Reacting to that story, Rob Knop in Are the fundamental constants changing? writes to point out that possible variations in constants such as the speed of light, if they exist at all, are likely to be quite minute, even over the entire lifetime (14 or 15 billion years) of the universe. So its undestandable that research that claims to have found such variations is very controversial. (In a subsequent correction, Rob notes that there is a more credible piece of research on this than the example he first chose.)

Based on Robs remarks, Chad Orzel of Uncertain Principles picks of the conversation. In two longish articles (part 1, part 2) he delivers a detailed explanation of what is involved in trying to investigate possible variations in a dimensionless constant such as the "fine structure constant". This latter number, which is suspiciously close to 1/137, plays a very large role in quantum physics. Among other things, it affects atomic spectra, and so can in principle be studied by examining spectra from very distant quasars. It depends in turn on four other physical constants -- the speed of light, the charge of an electron, Plancks constant, and the permittivity of free space. Any one of these, or even perhaps all, could be changing very slightly with time... so this is a rather interesting question.

Head spinning yet? If not, perhaps youd like to contemplate the question of the direction of time. This is a matter of deep concern to everyone: Why the heck do we keep getting older instead of younger? Alejandro Satz at Reality Conditions writes about the direction of time by way of a review of Huw Prices 1996 book Times Arrow and Archimedes Point. According to Alejandro, Price describes several well-known asymmetries ("arrows") of time, in spite of the time symmetry of practically all physical laws. The book then goes on to consider possible explanations for the asymmetries. Alejandro is planning to continue his review in the "future" -- or is that the "past"?

Winding down now, lets turn to simpler subjects, like math.

Perhaps youve heard anecdotes like this: Harried math grad student stumbles into class late. She sees a couple of assertions written on the blackboard and assumes they are homework. A week later she returns and hands the professor a written-out proof of one of the assertions. Professor is flabbergasted, since the assertion in question was a famous unsolved problem. Evidently thats not just an Urban legend. Apparently its even happened more than once, as Luis Alberto Sanchez Moreno of Astronomer. In the wild. explains.

With the apparent resolution of the Poincaré conjecture much in the news lately, many folks are interested in learning more about the fundamentals of topology. (Well, we can dream, cant we?) One of the most basic concepts is that of a "continuous function". Fortunately, we have "Paranoid Marvin" of Antopology ready with a good primer: Continuity Introduced.

Mathematics, of course, is not entirely about higher dimensions and similar abstractions. It has applications just about everywhere. I recall seeing a report that came out in the past year of someone, probably a lonely grad student, who came up with a mathematical model of sexual attraction, but I dont have time to go looking for it just now. However, mathematical biology is currently an active field, and Deepak Singh is enthusiastic about a paper that uses finite element modeling to study a biological process. He suggests that "in a few years, those interested in studying protein structure and function will require a healthy training in multiscale modeling (quantum chemistry, molecular dynamics, coarse grained simulations, continuum dynamics), bioinformatics, and mathematical modeling."

And now for something completely different... Did you know that there was an area in the upper midwest of the U. S. between lakes Superior and Michigan that was unglaciated even in the depths of the last ice age? I didnt. Its called the Driftless Area, and "Pascal" of Research at a snails pace (this is about glaciology, see?) explains how it happened.

And that concludes todays opening performance of Philosophia Naturalis. Well be back here again in just four short weeks, on Thursday, October 12. Watch this blog for further details. Or just go back to the original announcement for information on how you can suggest articles for inclusion here -- which I hope you will consider doing, because, well, sharing your interests is a Good Thing.

Update 9/30/06: The next edition will be posted at Nonoscience on October 12.
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More Fracking Problems Surface Blowouts at Gas Wells Likely to Increase

TreeHugger has a look at some of the problems faced (and/or created) by the shale gas industry - More Fracking Problems: Surface Blowouts at Gas Wells Likely to Increase.
As environmental media outlets turned their attention to the anniversary of the BP Gulf spill -- a year ago today -- yet another energy-related disaster occurred. A gas well owned by Chesapeake Energy in Pennsylvania suffered a blowout today, and spilled thousands of gallons of everyones favorite fracking fluids into the surrounding environment. (Refresher: those fracking chemicals are comprised of toxic stuff that the companies who use them keep secret). Its certainly not a disaster anywhere close to par with the Gulf spill, but Times Bryan Walsh makes a good point: with bipartisan political support for natural gas firmly in place, and an industry primed to take up the slack from dirty coal, were probably going to see more accidents like this.

From Time:
From simple spills to industrial accidents to the ongoing problem of wastewater disposal, the rapid expansion of shale gas drilling will inevitably bring risks, even if its done well. You dont have to fear the contamination of underground aquifers to worry about the impacts of shale gas drilling. Indeed, this afternoon--a year after the BP oil spill--a Chesapeake Energy gas well in northeastern Pennsylvania reportedly suffered a blowout, spilling thousands of gallons of fracking fluid water on the surrounding ground. Its not the first such blowout--and it likely wont be the last.

So add potential blowouts to the lengthening list of risks associated with drilling for gas. To recap, the biggest known problems with extracting natural gas are :

a) That companies are commonly used the process called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to inject an unknown cocktail of toxic chemicals (a loophole lets them legally keep which chemicals theyre using secret) into the rock in the ground to split it apart. These chemicals have been found to contaminate underground aquifers that supply many people with drinking water with toxic, carcinogenic chemicals. Also, the fracking process releases a ton of greenhouse gases.

b) The abundant waste water needs to go somewhere. In some regions, its possible to shoot the toxic waste water back down into the earth -- but in many places, its not. This is a major problem, since water treatment centers arent equipped to deal with the stuff.

c) Spills and explosions on the site. As demonstrated above, theres plenty of room for mechanical failure or personal error in the fracking process.

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Networked Intelligent Bicycles Are Transforming Urban Riding

RW has an article on electric bikes and intelligent bike sharing schemes - Networked Intelligent Bicycles Are Transforming Urban Riding.
The world’s first open source piece of hardware was the bicycle, according to the Open Source Hardware Association. To be more precise, it was the draisine, introduced as a two-wheeled human-propelled walking machine in 1817.

Technologists of the day added things like pedals, chains and rubber tires, as the bicycle became one of the world’s most widely used and loved machines. Nearly two centuries and a couple billion bicycles later, entrepreneurs are applying computer controls, GPS and wireless connectivity to bikes to help save the world’s cities from automobile gridlock.

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Tuesday, October 28, 2014

More about alternative energy

About a month ago, I wrote about the shortcomings of various alternative energy sources. That was mainly about a variety of problems with nuclear energy, solar energy (photovoltaics), and hydrogen.

I didnt even get into the subject of biofuels, but I should have, because the problems in that area are becoming painfully obvious.

Ordinarily I would not expect to find much significant reporting on a scientific/technical subject in Time magazine, especially something that challenges "conventional wisdom". But via DarkSyde at Kos I see theres an interesting article on the problems of "biofuel": The Clean Energy Scam
Several new studies show the biofuel boom is doing exactly the opposite of what its proponents intended: its dramatically accelerating global warming, imperiling the planet in the name of saving it. Corn ethanol, always environmentally suspect, turns out to be environmentally disastrous. Even cellulosic ethanol made from switchgrass, which has been promoted by eco-activists and eco-investors as well as by President Bush as the fuel of the future, looks less green than oil-derived gasoline.

Meanwhile, by diverting grain and oilseed crops from dinner plates to fuel tanks, biofuels are jacking up world food prices and endangering the hungry.

The Time article focuses on the loss of rainforest, and consequently the loss of its ability to soak up and sequester CO2. When the forest is gone, CO2 will still be incorporated in biomass (crops of some sort). But then that is converted to biofuel, and released back into the atmosphere when its burned. (To say nothing of the energy thats just wasted along with release of CO2 when the forest biomass is burned to clear it away.) Given all the energy that has to be expended to grow and harvest biofuel crops, with resulting additional release of CO2, we are worse off in terms of greenhouse gas emissions than if we just burned oil (or even coal).

But thats not the only serious problem. Crops that are grown to make fuel (from sugar cane, corn, switchgrass, or whatever) use land where food crops (for people and animals) could be grown instead. Driving up the cost of food for everyone on the planet. (Have you checked the price of bread or eggs at the market recently?)

Economists have spoken out about this problem for several years, when the hype for biofuels and ethanol was just beginning to build. For instance, we have from Howard Simons in early 2006: Making Our Food Fuel Isnt the Answer
If high prices strengthen energys claim on food supplies, governments everywhere will intervene on behalf of their hungry citizens. If low prices torpedo biofuels economics, governments everywhere will respond with subsidies for these industries. Only an elimination of current mandates and subsidies today will avoid these problems tomorrow, but the likelihood of this happening is near zero. Somehow I believe we will rue the day when we decided to make food and fuel substitutes at the margin.

In early 2007 Paul Krugman picked up the story: The Sum of All Ears
There is a place for ethanol in the world’s energy future — but that place is in the tropics. Brazil has managed to replace a lot of its gasoline consumption with ethanol. But Brazil’s ethanol comes from sugar cane.

In the United States, ethanol comes overwhelmingly from corn, a much less suitable raw material. In fact, corn is such a poor source of ethanol that researchers at the University of Minnesota estimate that converting the entire U.S. corn crop — the sum of all our ears — into ethanol would replace only 12 percent of our gasoline consumption.

So ethanol doesnt even help the U. S. all that much in terms of dependence on foreign oil. And this February Krugman returned to the subject here, linking to this: Ethanol Demand in U.S. Adds to Food, Fertilizer Costs
About 33 percent of U.S. corn will be used for fuel during the next decade, up from 11 percent in 2002, the Agriculture Department estimates. Corn rose 20 percent to a record on the Chicago Board of Trade since Dec. 19, the day President George W. Bush signed a law requiring a fivefold jump in renewable fuels by 2022.

Increased demand for the grain helped boost food prices by 4.9 percent last year, the most since 1990, and will reduce global inventories of corn to the lowest in 24 years, government data show. While advocates say ethanol is cleaner than gasoline, a Princeton University study this month said it causes more environmental harm than fossil fuels.

And then last week Krugman had even more: Grains Gone Wild
The subsidized conversion of crops into fuel was supposed to promote energy independence and help limit global warming. But this promise was, as Time magazine bluntly put it, a “scam.”

This is especially true of corn ethanol: even on optimistic estimates, producing a gallon of ethanol from corn uses most of the energy the gallon contains. But it turns out that even seemingly “good” biofuel policies, like Brazil’s use of ethanol from sugar cane, accelerate the pace of climate change by promoting deforestation.

And meanwhile, land used to grow biofuel feedstock is land not available to grow food, so subsidies to biofuels are a major factor in the food crisis. You might put it this way: people are starving in Africa so that American politicians can court votes in farm states.

Heres a report of a scientific study on the issue: Some Biofuels Risk Biodiversity And Could End Up Harming Environment
Corn-based ethanol is currently the most widely used biofuel in the United States, but it is also the most environmentally damaging among crop-based energy sources.

Finally, to bring this back to a solid scientific foundation, Sean at Cosmic Variance reminds us that Energy Doesn’t Grow on Trees
In particular, biofuels (such as ethanol) and hydrogen are not actually sources of energy — given the vagaries of thermodynamics, it costs more energy to create them than we can get by actually using them, as there will inevitably be some waste heat and entropy produced
.

Although all this bad news about just about every prospective near-term form of alternative energy is discouraging, there are a few other options that may become available in the slightly more distant future. Theres the old perennial, controlled nuclear fusion. Even though work on that is even more active than ever, its still at least several decades away.

But theres another significant option thats often overlooked: solar power satellites. This technology uses very large arrays of photovoltaic panels high in orbit around the earth. The energy is beamed back to the ground in the form of microwaves. (So this should not be confused with simply using mirrors to redirect additional sunlight, which presents serious problems of its own.)

Solar power satellites also have many uncertainties and potential problems, but the largest is simply boosting enough of them into orbit, and maintaining them. A possible approach to those problems involves space elevators. But those, again, present a whole additional set of challenges.

For now, here are a couple of articles from last fall with more details:

Pentagon backs plan to beam solar power from space

New Space Solar Power Report from DoD NSSO

Tags: ethanol, biofuel, alternative energy, solar power satellite
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Dopamine and obesity

Dopamine is a neurotransmitter thats well-known for its involvement in several notable medical and behavioral problems, such as Parkinsons disease and drug addiction. But it is connected with many other issues of medical and psychological importance.

Perhaps the main reason that dopamine is so interesting is that it plays a big role in the brains pleasure and reward systems. And therefore it is inevitably involved in reward-motivated behaviors of all kinds, from gambling, investing, substance abuse, and sex, to – eating. After all, isnt a high percentage of behavior motivated by rewards? There are other motivations for particular behaviors – fear and physiological needs, for example – but reward covers an awful lot of it.

Consequently, problems in the reward system can lead to excesses in some behaviors (e. g., gambling, eating), and perhaps also deficiencies in other behaviors (e. g. loss of interest in normal pleasures, as might accompany depression).

And because of the importance of dopamine in the reward system, problems with dopamine signaling can lead to problems in the reward system, with predictable consequences.

In the research were going to look at, dopamine signaling is impaired in the presence of a particular allele associated with the D2 receptor for dopamine (known as DRD2). The conclusion is reached via the observation of decreased activity, as mesured by fMRI, in a brain region called the dorsal striatum. It is known that the variant allele causes a lower density of D2 receptors in this region.

The bottom line of the research is that individuals with this variant allele tend to have impaired ability to enjoy rewards from foods that most people like, such as chocolate. As a result, such individuals are disposed to consume more food in order to achieve an acceptable level of satiation of reward.

It might be thought, instead, that since the desirable foods produce less reward in individuals with the variant allele, they might consume less, due to reduced interest. However, thats not how the reward system seems to work. It seems to require achievement of a certain signal level in order to reach satiation and thus decrease the motivated behavior.

This is similar to the way signaling works with another hormone connected with eating, namely leptin. Normally, leptin levels rise when food is consumed. There are receptors for leptin in the ventromedial nucleus of the hypothalamus, a region that is responsible for appetite. There leptin inhibits the activity of neurons that contain neuropeptide Y (NPY).

A connection has been found between obesity and insensitivity to leptin, much as diabetes results from decreased sensitivity to the hormone insulin. Preseumably, individuals with reduced sensitivity to leptin dont know when to stop eating. Much the same state of affairs seems to exist in individuals with the allele (which is a DNA restriction enzyme called TaqIA) that affects DRD2 receptor density in the dorsal striatum.

Obesity, Abnormal Reward Circuitry In Brain Linked: Gene Tied To Dopamine Signaling Also Implicated In Overeating (10/16/08)
Using brain imaging and chocolate milkshakes, scientists have found that women with weakened "reward circuitry" in their brains are at increased risk of weight gain over time and potential obesity. The risk increases even more for women who also have a gene associated with compromised dopamine signaling in the brain.

The results, drawn from two studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) at the University of Oregons Lewis Center for Neuroimaging, appear in the Oct. 17 issue of the journal Science. The first-of-its-kind approach unveiled blunted activation in the brains dorsal stratium when subjects were given milkshakes, which may reflect less-than-normal dopamine output.


Heres the research paper, with abstract:

Relation Between Obesity and Blunted Striatal Response to Food Is Moderated by TaqIA A1 Allele
The dorsal striatum plays a role in consummatory food reward, and striatal dopamine receptors are reduced in obese individuals, relative to lean individuals, which suggests that the striatum and dopaminergic signaling in the striatum may contribute to the development of obesity. Thus, we tested whether striatal activation in response to food intake is related to current and future increases in body mass and whether these relations are moderated by the presence of the A1 allele of the TaqIA restriction fragment length polymorphism, which is associated with dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) gene binding in the striatum and compromised striatal dopamine signaling. Cross-sectional and prospective data from two functional magnetic resonance imaging studies support these hypotheses, which implies that individuals may overeat to compensate for a hypofunctioning dorsal striatum, particularly those with genetic polymorphisms thought to attenuate dopamine signaling in this region.

The idea that problems with dopamine signaling might be related to overeating and obesity isnt new. The following research announced in July involved rats rather than humans and considered other dopamine insufficiency mechanisms, but the basic conclusions are the same:

Obesity Predisposition Traced To The Brains Reward System (7/29/08)
The tendency toward obesity is directly related to the brain system that is involved in food reward and addictive behaviors, according to a new study. Researchers at Tufts University School of Medicine (TUSM) and colleagues have demonstrated a link between a predisposition to obesity and defective dopamine signaling in the mesolimbic system in rats.

The mesolimbic system is a system of neurons in the brain that secretes dopamine, a neurotransmitter or chemical messenger, which mediates emotion and pleasure. The release of the neurotransmitter dopamine in the mesolimbic system is traditionally associated with euphoria and considered to be the major neurochemical signature of drug addiction. ...

Pothos says, "These findings have important implications in our understanding of the obesity epidemic. The notion that decreased dopamine signaling leads to increased feeding is compatible with the finding from human studies that obese individuals have reduced central dopamine receptors." He speculates that an attenuated dopamine signal may interfere with satiation, leading to overeating.

Paper abstract:

Evidence for defective mesolimbic dopamine exocytosis in obesity-prone rats
In electrophysiology studies, electrically evoked dopamine release in slice preparations was significantly attenuated in OP [obesity-prone] rats, not only in the nucleus accumbens but also in additional terminal sites of dopamine neurons such as the accumbens shell, dorsal striatum, and medial prefrontal cortex, suggesting that there may be a widespread dysfunction in mechanisms regulating dopamine release in this obesity model. Moreover, dopamine impairment in OP rats was apparent at birth and associated with changes in expression of several factors regulating dopamine synthesis and release: vesicular monoamine transporter-2, tyrosine hydroxylase, dopamine transporter, and dopamine receptor-2 short-form. Taken together, these results suggest that an attenuated central dopamine system would reduce the hedonic response associated with feeding and induce compensatory hyperphagia, leading to obesity.


News reports of the human dopamine results:

  • Researchers tie genes, lower reward response to weight gain (10/16/08) – Yale University press release
  • Gene mutation predicts future weight gain (10/16/08) – New Scientist
  • Milkshake study reveals brain's role in obesity (10/16/08) – Reuters
  • Brains reaction to yummy food may predict weight (10/16/08) — Associated Press
  • Brain signals predict weight gain (10/16/08) – BBC
  • Brains pleasure signals linked to obesity (10/17/08) – ABC




ResearchBlogging.org
E. Stice, S. Spoor, C. Bohon, D. M. Small (2008). Relation Between Obesity and Blunted Striatal Response to Food Is Moderated by TaqIA A1 Allele Science, 322 (5900), 449-452 DOI: 10.1126/science.1161550


Tags: obesity, dopamine
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How to grow fresh air

I noticed this TED talk recently on the benefits of freshening the air inside buildings in urban areas using plants - How to grow fresh air.
Researcher Kamal Meattle shows how an arrangement of three common houseplants, used in specific spots in a home or office building, can result in measurably cleaner indoor air.
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Kenyas Mobile Banking Revolution



MIT researcher Nathan Eagle regaled the audience at the O’Reilly Emerging Technology conference yesterday with tales of technical innovation from East Africa. “Kenya has some mobile phone services that are years ahead of what we have right now,” he said. Eagle was at ETech to present his new startup, Txteagle, which aims to be a kind of mobile Mechanical Turk, using countless mobile phone users in Kenya and beyond to solve easy tasks and earn small amounts of money in return. (There’s a good writeup in Wired News today)

It’s definitely an interesting idea. But to me, the real story is how mobile phones have transformed a country like Kenya in recent years, making not only services like Txteagle possible, but also shaking up the region’s entire economic system.
Eagle spent the last few years going back and forth between Kenya and the U.S., and he witnessed this transformation firsthand. I caught up with him after his talk to learn more. According to Eagle, local incumbent Safaricom had started a minute-sharing service for its prepaid cell phone plans a few years back. The idea was to enable users to send minutes to family members in rural areas, who weren’t otherwise able to buy prepaid phone cards. However, Kenyans quickly came up with other uses. “Lots and lots of people were using it as a surrogate for currency,” Eagle said. “[You] could literally pay for taxi cab rides using cell phone credit.”
Safaricom realized a huge opportunity and started a mobile payment service called M-PESA. To call M-PESA a success would be an understatement, according to Eagle. “Within about a year, (Safaricom) became the biggest bank in East Africa.” Today you can use your phone to pay for cab rides and electricity, to get money out of ATMs without owning an ATM card or even having a traditional bank account.
Eagle shared another striking example of the transformative power of mobile payments during his ETech talk. Rural communities used to have to pay a lot of money upfront in order to get a modern well capable of providing clean drinking water. Now, there are companies that install these wells for free, complete with an integrated cell phone payment system. Want some water? Just pay as you go with your M-PESA account.
“It has transformed the country,” says Eagle
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